Is this year truly marking the end of Windows and heralding the year of Linux? In this article, we will explore the nuances. The fact remains that support for Windows 10 will cease on October 14th. To assist users who are unable or unwilling to transition to Windows 11, OS-SCi has partnered with 1Optic to participate in the EndOf10 event. On September 4th, 5th, and 6th, you can visit us with your computer, and we will help you migrate to Linux.
It's Going Up
This is true, but it overlooks an important point. Undeterred by all the mockery, the spread of the free operating system has developed quite nicely in recent years. Admittedly, it is always difficult to find truly reliable figures on such topics, as it also depends on the perspective and source used. However, what is consistent everywhere is the trend, and it says: In the past two to three years, Linux has significantly gained market share.
The most obvious source is the Statcounter data, derived from visits to countless websites. These currently attribute a global market share of 4.1 percent to Linux (as of June 2025). This value naturally varies greatly from country to country; in the USA, it is already 5 percent, and in Austria, it is 4.5 percent. To be precise, one should also count ChromeOS, as Google's second operating system is also a Linux variant. Depending on the country, this would add another 0.5 to three percentage points to the Linux share. Rumors are India in particular is scoring 12% of Linux on the Desktop, but exact figures are difficult to get.
A Trend
This is all well and good, but it is still far from breaking Windows' dominance, and MacOS, with around 15 percent, is not quite within reach either. However, the trend is more important: Three years ago, Linux's market share was only half of its current value. These are not isolated incidents; this development has been consistently observed in the figures since then.
This trend is not only evident in Statcounter; other statistics also show a similar development. Even the world's largest porn site, one of the few major platforms to publicly release such figures, now observes a Linux share of 5.1 percent among its users, as stated in the 2024 figures.
Clue Hunting
All of this naturally raises the question: How does this happen? And especially: Why now, after Linux was previously stuck in the sub-1 percent range? In fact, this is not as surprising as one might initially think. Several factors are currently coming together.
The first may sound banal but should not be forgotten: The Linux desktop has simply matured in recent years. There are multiple mature desktop environments to choose from, and there is no shortage of solid distributions on which everything is based. Anyone trying out Debian, OpenSuse, Ubuntu, Fedora, or Linux Mint today just to name a few will have little trouble, even if they are less technically inclined.
Games and Support
Additionally and this will be a topic later older hardware is supported for much longer than is the case with Windows or MacOS. Also not to be underestimated: Thanks to the work of Steam manufacturer Valve, support for Windows games has been massively improved in recent years. This makes Linux interesting for many who have previously excluded the free operating system for these very reasons.
But there are also general trends currently playing into Linux's hands. For example, the desktop as a platform is generally losing relevance especially concerning the general public. This statistically increases the proportion of those who are particularly tech-savvy and strongly inclined towards Linux, such as software developers or individuals who want as few touchpoints as possible with the data collection of large corporations.
Flatpaks can be installed across distributions, simplifying software delivery on Linux.
The Desktop and Its Applications
At the same time, the relevance of traditional desktop applications has been declining for years, as more and more is happening on the web. For those who, in reality, only use the browser, it hardly matters whether Windows, Mac, or Linux is running underneath. Undoubtedly, many people still need certain specialized applications for professional reasons, but this does not change the overall trend.
Now, of course, the question arises with every trend: How sustainable is it? In this case, however, the chances are very good that the development will not only continue but even accelerate, thanks in no small part to the biggest competitor: Microsoft.
Thank You, Windows 10
The impending end of Windows 10 is another catalyst for the current development. It forces many to ask themselves whether they really want to switch to Windows 11 and thus often to a new computer or whether they would prefer to switch directly to the greener pastures of the Linux world.
Microsoft has somewhat softened the support end planned for mid-October and now also offers private individuals the opportunity to purchase an extra year of support, but this only postpones the fundamental question at best. Especially since it is easily possible under Linux to use a current desktop system with hardware that is allegedly too weak or otherwise insufficient for Windows 11.
Meanwhile, there are also some Linux campaigns aimed precisely at catching those who are annoyed by Microsoft's approach. The endof10 project is a notable example, going around worldwide to promote Linux as a viable alternative. This community-driven initiative is a joint effort by free open-source software communities and repair café initiatives, highlighting the advantages of Linux in terms of hardware longevity, privacy, and control over one's own data. We at OS-SCi are proud supporters of the endof10 project and are actively organizing events to help users upgrade to Linux, making the transition smoother and more accessible for everyone.
Distrust
This is precisely where the next point comes in, benefiting the spread of Linux on the desktop. The political situation and the increasing instrumentalization of Big Tech by the Trump administration are causing a crisis of trust in the major manufacturers. As a result, many companies, authorities, and private individuals are currently asking themselves whether they really still want to use their services and Linux is, of course, an excellent alternative.
However, all of this is of little use if Linux itself does not continue to evolve. Especially regarding software delivery, it has been made very difficult for larger providers to offer their products for the free operating system. However, with Flatpak and similar projects, there are now distribution-independent formats that significantly lower this hurdle.
Now, it should not be concealed that there are still some hurdles here for example, regarding simple monetization for commercial providers but the direction is correct. And who knows, if Linux continues to grow like this, perhaps one or the other manufacturer of classic desktop programs will indeed try again with the free operating system.
The Phrase Was Always Wrong
So, will 2025 be the year of the Linux desktop? No, of course not. If only because this formulation generally makes little sense, as it suggests a sudden upheaval. However, such things generally do not exist in mature product groups like the desktop. What does exist, however, are slow shifts, and this is precisely what has been observed around Linux in recent years and is likely to continue.